How the H1B Lottery Works
When more people register than the 85,000 cap allows, USCIS runs a random computer lottery. Everyone enters the 20,000 master's cap draw first. If you're not picked there, you roll into the 65,000 regular cap draw.
So if you have a U.S. master's degree, you get two shots. Everyone else gets one.
Lottery Odds by Year
| Fiscal Year | Registrations | Selected | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 308,613 | 85,000 | 27.5% |
| FY2023 | 483,927 | 85,000 | 17.6% |
| FY2024 | 758,994 | 85,000 | ~11.2% |
| FY2025 | 442,000 | 120,603 | 27.3% |
Look at FY2024. Nearly 759,000 registrations for 85,000 slots. Your odds: about 1 in 9. That was the year the system nearly broke.
Why FY2024 Was an Outlier
Staffing companies figured out they could submit multiple registrations for the same person through different entities, juicing their odds. USCIS caught on and implemented a beneficiary-centric selection rule: one registration per applicant, identified by passport number, no matter how many employers file. Registrations dropped back to ~442,000 in FY2025 and odds recovered to 27.3%.
The gaming was brazen, and the fix was overdue.
Strategies That Can Actually Help
1. Get a U.S. Master's DegreeThe 20,000-slot advanced degree exemption gives you two lottery entries. Over multiple years of trying, this meaningfully improves your cumulative odds.
2. Target Cap-Exempt EmployersUniversities, affiliated nonprofits, and government research organizations skip the cap entirely. No lottery. Common cap-exempt categories:
- Universities and colleges
- University-affiliated hospitals and research labs
- Nonprofit research organizations
- Government research organizations
The O-1A (extraordinary ability) visa has no cap and no lottery. If you've got publications, patents, awards, or significant industry recognition, this can bridge the gap while you keep entering H1B lotteries.
5. Canada as a BackupCanada's Express Entry system can get you permanent residency in 6 to 18 months. From there, TN visa transitions to the U.S. are sometimes possible depending on your profession. It's not the same as H1B, but it keeps you in North America while you figure things out.
Explore Cap-Exempt Employers on VisaTrack
Lottery data from USCIS public announcements and annual reports.